Prediction of earthquake-induced crest settlement of embankment dams using gene expression programming

The seismic design of embankment dams requires more comprehensive studies to understand the behaviour of dams. Deformations primarily control this behaviour occur during or after earthquake loading. Dam failures and incidents show that the impacts of deformations should be reviewed for existing and new embankment dams. Overtopping erosion failure can occur if crest deformations exceed the freeboard at the time of the deformations. Therefore, crest settlement is one of the most critical deformations. This study developed empirical formulas using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) based on 88 cases. In the analyses, dam height (Hd), alluvium thickness (Ha), the magnitude-acceleration-factor (MAF) values developed based on earthquake magnitude (Mw) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) within this study have been chosen as variables. Results show that GEP models developed in the paper are remarkably robust and accessible tools to predict earthquake-induced crest settlement of embankment dams and perform superior to the existing formulation. Also, dam engineering professionals can use them practically because the variables of prediction equations are easily accessible after the earthquake.