Gaussian process regression model to predict factor of safety of slope stability

Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh, Hamid Reza Nejati, Nafiseh Rezaie, Adil Hussein Mohammed, Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim, Mokhtar Mohammadi and Shima Rashidi

Abstract

It is essential for geotechnical engineers to conduct studies and make predictions about the stability of slopes, since collapse of a slope may result in catastrophic events. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach was carried out for the purpose of predicting the factor of safety (FOS) of the slopes in the study that was presented here. The model makes use of a total of 327 slope cases from Iran, each of which has a unique combination of geometric and shear strength parameters that were analyzed by PLAXIS software in order to determine their FOS. The K-fold (K = 5) technique of cross-validation (CV) was used in order to conduct an analysis of the accuracy of the models' predictions. In conclusion, the GPR model showed excellent ability in the prediction of FOS of slope stability, with an R2 value of 0.8355, RMSE value of 0.1372, and MAPE value of 6.6389%, respectively. According to the results of the sensitivity analysis, the characteristics (friction angle) and (unit weight) are, in descending order, the most effective, the next most effective, and the least effective parameters for determining slope stability.

Key Words

factor of safety; feature selection;Gaussian process; machine learning;regression;slope stability

Address

Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh andid Reza Nejati: Rock Mechanics Division, School of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Nafiseh Rezaie: Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Qom,Qom, Iran Adil Hussein Mohammed: Department of Communication and Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Cihan University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim: Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Salahaddin University-Erbil, 44002 Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq Mokhtar Mohammadi: Department of Information Technology, College of Engineering and Computer Science, Lebanese French University, Kurdistan Region, Iraq Shima Rashidi: Department of Computer Science, College of Science and Technology, University of Human Development, Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq

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