Reliability analysis of shallow tunnel with surface settlement

Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.