On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event <M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.