Earthquakes and Structures

Volume 30, Number 2, 2026, pages 227-243

DOI: 10.12989/eas.2026.30.2.227

Seismic fragility analysis of high earth-rockfill dam based on seismic endurance time history method

Fengyu Zhou , Ligang Chen , Bo Yuan , Te Wang , Zelin Ding , Hongyang Zhang

Abstract

Earthquake vulnerability is a critical indicator for assessing the seismic safety performance of dams. The seismic time history method is a performance-based seismic safety analysis method that can predict the dynamic response of dam structures under different earthquake intensities. To address the issues associated with traditional vulnerability calculations, which require extensive amplitude adjustment and dynamic analysis, this study combines the seismic time history method with traditional vulnerability calculation methods to propose a seismic vulnerability calculation method for earth-rock dams based on seismic time history. First, using the site-specific spectrum, the ETA method is employed to generate seismic time history curves; Then, based on these curves, the dynamic response of the dam under different peak accelerations is calculated; Next, the MSA method is used to compare and analyze the traditional amplitude adjustment calculation method with the seismic time history method to validate the applicability of this method. The calculation results show that the ETA method and the traditional method have high correlation, with the maximum error of the seismic damage index exceedance probability being 15.1%, and the error is within the allowable range. This proves the applicability of the ETA method in the seismic vulnerability analysis of earth-rock dams, and the research results can provide technical references for the seismic performance design and risk assessment of earth-rock dams.

Key Words

earth-rock dam; ETA method; MSA method; seismic time history method; vulnerability analysis

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