A novel two-layer hybrid model for ultra-short-term wind speed prediction based on SSP and BO-LSTM

Weicheng Hu , Baolong Cheng , Qingshan Yang , Zhenqing Liu , Ziting Yuan , Ke Li , Mingjin Zhang

Abstract

Grid management is important for energy distribution, system security and market economics, and one of the key issues is accurate and stable prediction of wind speed for optimal operation and management of wind power connected to the grid. In this study, a novel two-layer hybrid method termed SSP-BO-LSTM is proposed for ultra-short-term wind speed prediction, such as four-hour ahead. The first layer is based on the smoothing spline preprocessing (SSP) method to remove nonGaussian and non-stationary volatilities from the high-resolution wind speed series. Then, the processed wind speed data are predicted four-hour ahead by the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and a bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm is presented to optimize the hyperparameters of the LSTM model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed SSP-BO-LSTM model, a case study of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction is conducted, including three high-resolution wind speed series from wind turbine measurements. Moreover, six other prediction models are introduced for in-depth comparison, and a comprehensive analysis is performed. The results show that the proposed model can improve the accuracy of four-hour ahead prediction by about 8%-35%, proving to be more effective and stable in providing acceptable results compared to the other six models mentioned in this study.

Key Words

Bayesian optimization; long short-term memory; smoothing spline preprocessing; ultra-short-term prediction; wind speed

Address

Weicheng Hu — 1)Zhejiang Jiangnan Project Management Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, 310007, China 2)State Key Laboratory of Performance Monitoring and Protecting of Rail Transit Infrastructure, School of Transportation Engineering, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, 330013, China 3)Chongqing Key Laboratory of Wind Engineering and Wind Energy Utilization, School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China
Baolong Cheng — Zhejiang Jiangnan Project Management Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, 310007, China
Qingshan Yang — Chongqing Key Laboratory of Wind Engineering and Wind Energy Utilization, School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China
Zhenqing Liu — School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China
Ziting Yuan — School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang, 330013, China
Ke Li — Chongqing Key Laboratory of Wind Engineering and Wind Energy Utilization, School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China
Mingjin Zhang — Department of Bridge Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, China

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