Assessment of the directional extreme wind speeds of typhoons via the Copula function and Monte Carlo simulation

Jingcheng Wang, Yong Quan and Ming Gu

Abstract

Probabilistic information regarding directional extreme wind speeds is important for the precise estimation of the design wind loads on structures. A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme typhoon wind speeds is established using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical copula function to fully consider the correlations of extreme typhoon wind speeds among the different directions. With this model, a procedure for estimating directional extreme wind speeds for given return periods, which ensures that the overall risk is distributed uniformly by direction, is established. Taking 5 typhoon-prone cities in China as examples, the directional extreme typhoon wind speeds for given return periods estimated by the present method are compared with those estimated by the method proposed by Cook and Miller (1999). Two types of directional factors are obtained based on Cook and Miller (1999) and the UK standard

Key Words

directional extreme wind speeds of typhoons; empirical copula function; directional assessment; Monte Carlo simulation

Address

Jingcheng Wang: State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China Yong Quan:State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China Ming Gu:State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

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