A long-term tunnel settlement prediction model based on BO-GPBE with SHM data
Yang Ding,Yu-Jun Wei,Pei-Sen Xi,Peng-Peng Ang,Zhen Han
Abstract
The new metro crossing the existing metro will cause the settlement or floating of the existing structures, which will have safety problems for the operation of the existing metro and the construction of the new metro. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor and predict the settlement of the existing metro caused by the construction of the new metro in real time. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of metro settlement, a Gaussian Prior Bayesian Emulator (GPBE) probability prediction model based on Bayesian optimization (BO) is proposed, that is, BO-GPBE. Firstly, the settlement monitoring data are analyzed to get the influence of the new metro on the settlement of the existing metro. Then, five different acquisition functions, that is, expected improvement (EI), expected improvement per second (EIPS), expected improvement per second plus (EIPSP), lower confidence bound (LCB), probability of improvement (PI) are selected to construct BO model, and then BO-GPBE model is established. Finally, three years settlement monitoring data were collected by structural health monitoring (SHM) system installed on Nanjing Metro Line 10 are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of BO-GPBE for forecasting the settlement.
Key Words
Bayesian emulator; Bayesian optimization; Gaussian prior; settlement probability prediction; structural health monitoring
Address
(1) Yang Ding — Department of Civil Engineering, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, China
(2) Yang Ding — Zhejiang Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Urban Infrastructure, Hangzhou City University, 310015, China
(3) Yang Ding — Key Laboratory of Safe Construction and Intelligent Maintenance for Urban Shield Tunnels of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou, 310015, China
(4) Yu-Jun Wei — Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
(5) Pei-Sen Xi, Peng-Peng Ang — Zhejiang Engineering Research Center of Smart Rail Transportation, Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 311100, China
(6) Zhen Han — Nanjing Metro Operation Co., Ltd., Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210012, China.
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